Revised Projections for Nuclear Energy Growth
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has released its latest projections in "Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2060," marking the sixth consecutive year of upward revisions. The agency now forecasts global nuclear energy capacity to more than triple by 2060. At the close of 2025, 413 operable nuclear power reactors worldwide generated 377.1 GWe.
Under the IAEA's high-case scenario, nuclear generating capacity is projected to reach 1,045 GWe by 2050, an increase from last year's forecast of 992 GWe. Extending projections to 2060 for the first time, the high-case anticipates 1,284 GWe, which would represent 3.4 times the capacity recorded at the end of 2025. The low-case projection for 2060 is 696 GWe, with 641 GWe by 2050, up from 561 GWe previously forecast for 2050.
Key Drivers: SMRs and Reactor Lifetime Extensions
Small modular reactors (SMRs) are expected to play a significant role in future capacity additions. The IAEA projects SMRs to account for 28% of the 1,017 GWe of new capacity in the high-case scenario, or 23% of the 521 GWe in the low-case. Assuming an average capacity of 300 MWe per unit, the low-case scenario suggests approximately 400 new SMR units by 2060, potentially reaching 480 units if the average capacity is 250 MWe. Regionally, SMRs could contribute about 60% of new nuclear capacity in North America, and 40% in South-Eastern Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean under both high and low projections.
Extending the operational life of existing reactors is also crucial for achieving projected growth. The IAEA indicates that under the high-case scenario, 70% of currently operating capacity would remain in service by 2060. Conversely, the low-case scenario suggests nearly two-thirds of current units would be retired. The agency emphasizes that viable lifetime extensions for existing reactors represent a cost-effective source of baseload, low-emission electricity, particularly for regions with aging nuclear fleets.
Enabling Factors and Financial Landscape
Achieving the high-case projections will require supportive national policies, increased investment, workforce development, and enhanced regulatory collaboration and global harmonization. IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi highlighted the necessity of investment in new nuclear capacity and reactor lifetime extensions to meet growing electricity demands.
The upward revision of projections reflects a growing recognition of nuclear power's role in energy security and economic growth. Renewed engagement from international financial institutions, including the World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank, signals a broader shift in financial support for nuclear energy. This increased interest is partly driven by intensified energy security and affordability concerns following energy crises since 2022, prompting a greater focus on diversified electricity generation sources.